Sign in Subscribe

Weak Signals

How to see markets beyond the curve, catch weak signals, and anticipate turnarounds to leverage change and disruptions

Tesla is not a car company

Tesla is not a car company

I've been saying that Tesla is not a car company for many years. The car is admittedly an essential moving piece (pun intended) of their business, but it's only the product. Tesla is, first and foremost, an energy company monetized with high-end electric cars. Their crucial

Dealing with exponential blindness

Dealing with exponential blindness

Following up on last week's article on forecasters, I want to zoom in on the one tricky issue when you go about plotting where the future will be: exponentials. The problem(s) with exponentials Very often, exponentials are a cheap sleight-of-hands used by many forecasters like with AR/

Every forecaster lives at the expense of the listener

Every forecaster lives at the expense of the listener

While we are entering even more volatile times than two years ago – can you wrap your mind around this? I barely can at this point – it's worth remembering that our collective brain will seek reassuring perspectives. In the industry, the most reassuring ones are solid forecasts. How do

What is the problem that MaaS solves?

What is the problem that MaaS solves?

Mobility as a service (MaaS) is one of those fabled sea serpents that many city transport authorities have seen or are actively chasing without much success. The core promise is a one-stop-shop service that allows anyone to plan, book, and pay for going from A to B in a city,

Where's the crutch technology?

Where's the crutch technology?

I wrote about NFT technology yesterday and didn't want to get too much in the weeds in an already long post. Still, I'd like to point at a key concept that startups and corporate innovators often miss: the crutch technology. When you're pushing a