🔵 Crusing in Chaos - Part 4, The logic of becoming the casino
In this series of articles for the summer, I explore the key differences between innovation during linear and relatively stable times and those like... now.
The idea that strategy is about planning, control, and perfect execution is the most enduring corporate fairy tale of the 20th century. When markets are unstable and dynamics shift without warning, the boardrooms' five-year projections just collapse under their own weight.
In our previous article about shifting mental models, we made it clear: when you stop pretending you can predict the future, you still need a strategy. But it’s not about finding the next big bet. It’s about planting multiple small, high-upside options. You don’t regress the future into a single forecast. You build a portfolio of possibilities and collect asymmetric returns. That’s optionality. If one bet pays off, it covers the rest. If none do, you still learn.
Today, let’s push that logic further.
Instead of gambling, own the table
When you walk into a casino, some people win, most lose, and the house always takes a cut. It’s not luck. It’s structural asymmetry. The casino doesn’t play; it sets the rules and spreads risk across hundreds of tables, thousands of players. And doing so, it eventually always captures the upsides. This is the logic of real innovation resilience.
Resilient innovators don’t go all in on a "smart" bet like Zuckerberg and the metaverse or Apple and the shiny VR headset. They play like Nvidia or Huawei, building strategic portfolios across market risk, tech risk, regulatory risk, and timing risk.
And this is where scale becomes non-negotiable.
