🔵 Cruising in chaos - Part 2, Shifting to specific mental models

The crystal ball is broken

Let’s state the obvious: no one can see the future.

Not your C-suite, not your consultants, not even your favorite futurist with a nice deck. And if you’re still building five-year strategic plans based on linear assumptions and clear milestones, congratulations—you’re navigating a hurricane with a sundial.

Yes, some parts of the future are predictable. Demographics, legacy infrastructure, or global soft power dynamics move slowly, like tectonic plates. You can foresee that Europe’s population is aging, that China is investing in Africa’s ports, or that energy grids won’t modernize overnight.

But here’s the catch: the tectonic shifts are now intersecting with weather patterns of chaos—short-term, erratic, and often brutal. The system is so interconnected and unstable that one executive decision in Washington or Beijing, and your entire sourcing strategy collapses. You go from “best-cost country sourcing” to emergency reshoring in three months.