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Strategy

How to get from insight to market in a complex, sometimes chaotic, fast-moving world.

Critical mass and dilution point of social networks value

Critical mass and dilution point of social networks value

Ten years ago, Twitter was already messing with its users and decided to forbid third parties from using its API. At the time, I was already writing about the notion of critical mass for social networks. I was also trying to introduce the idea of a dilution point for the

My 12 predictions for 2023

My 12 predictions for 2023

Let's get in end-of-the-year mode with my batch of predictions for 2023. I tried to write them down as fast as possible, without thinking about them much, to see what was spinning in my brain's background. So here goes: 1. Infrastructure eats the world. This is

The future is never hindered by a lack of technology

The future is never hindered by a lack of technology

In just a few weeks, it will be ten years that I'm using the example of lab-grown meat to explain Moore's law and other derivative tech power laws. Start in 2013 with a €250,000 small burger entirely grown in a lab from beef cells that

The truth about the first-mover advantage

The truth about the first-mover advantage

In 1988, Marvin B. Lieberman and David B. Montgomery, both eminent professors at Stanford Business School, theorized the notion of first-mover advantage (FMA) in a ground-breaking article. The idea gets hold of the collective mind of innovators and business strategists as a core law of nature: pioneering firms would generate

Is there a future for the gas station?

Is there a future for the gas station?

The demand for gas is now on a stable downward trajectory. In 2030, McKinsey estimated a drop to $79bn, down from $87bn in 2019. The venerable gas station is among the many businesses and infrastructure impacted, and companies like Shell are now paying attention. With consumers and professionals transitioning to

Laws & Regulation vs. Innovation

Laws & Regulation vs. Innovation

Last June, I discussed some elements of the thermodynamics of innovation and how laws and regulations are very often the limiting factors to getting change in the market. In that regard, the seemingly never-ending race to get autonomous vehicles on the road is a perfect example. If the technology was